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Human Security Gateway - Do Governance Indicators Predict Anything? The Case of "Fragile States" and Civil War
Article / Working Paper, Conflict, Academic/Think TankThere is almost no research on the question of whether these expert-based governance indicators actually forecast a country’s performance in the next five or ten years. If aid allocation and style decisions are going to be conditioned to a significant degree on these indicators, we would like to know if perceptions-based measures of somewhat unclear concepts actually are picking up anything...
Measuring National Statistical Capacity in Conflict and Fragile Countries
Article / Working Paper, Conflict, Public Administration, UNDP ProducedThe UNDP Oslo Governance Centre presents in this discussion paper the issue of measurement of statistical capacity in conflict ridden and fragile countries. It shows the importance of statistical capacity for public policy and measuring peace- and statebuilding strategies as well as an indicator in itself of State capacity. This discussion paper by the UNDP Oslo...
A methodology for democratic conflict prevention and early warning in Latin America
Article / Working Paper, Conflict, Democracy, Latin America and the Carribean, Academic/Think TankThis paper presents a seven-step methodology designed to analyse violent conflict, assess democratic governance and understand the relationships between the two. It has been developed principally as a tool of analysis to study the nature and quality of democracy in relation to current and future conflicts in a specific world region: Latin America. The methodology identifies...
Gauging the Potential for Social Unrest
Article / Working Paper, Conflict, Academic/Think TankIt stands to reason that social unrest does not erupt out of the blue. Although there are a great many reasons why social dismay might descend into social disorder, only few yardsticks or indices can plausibly be used to gauge the potential for social unrest (PSU). If policy makers want to undertake public action to prevent social dismay escalating into social disruption, they obviously need to...
Evidence Generation in Developing Countries: The case of Sudan
Africa, Article / Working Paper, Civil Society, Conflict, GAP, UNDP ProducedAuthors/Editors: Eltayeb Hag Ateya This OGC discussion paper describes the experience of The Peace Research Institute (PRI) of the University of Khartoum, the oldest, largest and most prestigious university in Sudan, as an evidence generating institution. The paper was presented at the UNDP Oslo Governance Centre & Canadian IDRC Event: Roundtable on Evidence on Governance into...
Bringing Governance Evidence into the Policy Process: Opportunities and Challenges in Post-Conflict Serbia
Article / Working Paper, Civil Society, Conflict, Europe and CIS, GAP, UNDP ProducedAuthors/Editors: Maja Gavrilovic This OGC discussion paper looks at the role and scope of influence of research institutes and think tanks in Serbia. It identifies the factors that constrain and/or facilitate CSO influence and briefly examines the potential for more effective future engagement. The paper was presented at the UNDP Oslo Governance Centre & Canadian IDRC Event: ...
Evidence-Informed Policy in Post-Conflict Contexts: Nepal, Peru and Serbia
Article / Working Paper, Asia and the Pacific, Conflict, Europe and CIS, GAP, Latin America and the Carribean, UNDP ProducedAuthors/Editors: Nicola Jones and Arnaldo Pellini This OGC discussion paper summarises case studies from Nepal, Peru and Serbia, three diverse post-conflict contexts on the production and use of governance evidence at both the general and sectoral levels. It served as a background document to the UNDP Oslo Governance Centre & Canadian IDRC Event: Evidence on Governance into...
Think Tanks in Post-Conflict Context: Towards Evidence-Informed Governance Reform
Article / Working Paper, Civil Society, Conflict, GAP, UNDP ProducedAuthors/Editors: Nicola Jones, Julia Pomares, Arnaldo Pellini with Ajoy Datta. This OGC discussion paper highlights that there is a considerable array of internationally generated governance evidence indicators and approaches, but a much more limited culture of context-specific evidence generation in post-conflict societies. It served as a background paper to the UNDP Oslo Governance...